Earth's climate to increase by 4 degrees by 2084

A collaborative research team from China has published a new analysis that shows the Earth's climate would increase by 4 °C, compared to pre-industrial levels, before the end of 21st century.

The levels of future global warming relative to the pre-industrial period have been extensively addressed, in which 2 C
and 1.5 C warming have attracted the most attention. A special report 'Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World
must be Avoided' by the World Bank in 2012 described a 4 C warmer world with significant changes in mean
and extreme climates on the basis of earlier-generation climate models and emission scenarios
[Credit: ParabolStudio/Shutterstock]

To understand the severity of this, consider the Paris Agreement of the United Nations. It's a global effort to prevent an increase of 2°C. Nearly every country on the planet--the United States is the only country to withdraw--has agreed to work to prevent the catastrophic effects of two degrees of warming.

The researchers published their analysis projecting a doubling of that increase in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

"A great many record-breaking heat events, heavy floods, and extreme droughts would occur if global warming crosses the 4 °C level, with respect to the preindustrial period," said Dabang Jiang, a senior researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. "The temperature increase would cause severe threats to ecosystems, human systems, and associated societies and economies."

In the analysis, Jiang and his team used the parameters of scenario in which there was no mitigation of rising greenhouse gas emissions. They compared 39 coordinated climate model experiments from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, which develops and reviews climate models to ensure the most accurate climate simulations possible.

They found that most of the models projected an increase of 4°C as early as 2064 and as late as 2095 in the 21st century, with 2084 appearing as the median year.

This increase translates to more annual and seasonal warming over land than over the ocean, with significant warming in the Arctic. The variability of temperature throughout one year would be lower in the tropics and higher in polar regions, while precipitation would most likely increase in the Arctic and in the Pacific. These are the same effects that would occur under 1.5°C or 2°C increases, but more severe.

"Such comparisons between the three levels of global warming imply that global and regional climate will undergo greater changes if higher levels of global warming are crossed in the 21st century," wrote Jiang.

The researchers continue to investigate the changes associated with 4°C of global warming in extreme climates.

"Our ultimate goal is to provide a comprehensive picture of the mean and extreme climate changes associated with higher levels of global warming based on state-of-the art climate models, which is of high interest to the decision-makers and the public," said Jiang.

Source: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences [May 23, 2018]

How coyotes conquered North America

Coyotes now live across North America, from Alaska to Panama, California to Maine. But where they came from, and when, has been debated for decades. Using museum specimens and fossil records, researchers from the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences and North Carolina State University have produced a comprehensive (and unprecedented) range history of the expanding species that can help reveal the ecology of predation as well as evolution through hybridization. Their findings appeared in ZooKeys.

A coyote in Yosemite National Park, California, USA [Credit: Christopher Bruno]

The geographic distribution of coyotes has dramatically expanded since 1900, spreading across much of North America in a period when most other mammal species have been declining. Although this unprecedented expansion has been well documented at the state/provincial scale, the continent-wide picture of coyote spread was coarse and largely anecdotal. A more thorough compilation of available records was needed.

"We began by mapping the original range of coyotes using archeological and fossil records," says co-author Dr. Roland Kays, Head of the Museum's Biodiversity Lab and Research Associate Professor in NC State's Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources. "We then plotted their range expansion across North America from 1900 to 2016 using museum specimens, peer-reviewed reports, and game department records." In all, Kays and lead author James Hody reviewed more than 12,500 records covering the past 10,000 years for this study.

Ranges are based on occurrence of museum specimens, peer-reviewed literature with associated specimens or
photographs, and reports from state game departments. The distribution of coyotes between the Yucatán
Peninsula and Nicaragua is coarsely depicted due to the paucity of available data, representing the
earliest confirmed occurrence [Credit: James Hody]

Their findings indicate that coyotes historically occupied a larger area of North America than generally suggested in the literature. Previous maps, as it turns out, had ancient coyotes only located across the central deserts and grasslands. However, fossils from across the arid west link the distribution of coyotes from 10,000 years ago to specimens collected in the late 1800s, proving that their geographic range was not only broader but had been established for hundreds, perhaps thousands of years, which also contradicts some widely-cited descriptions of their historical distribution.

It wasn't until approximately 1920 that coyotes began their expansion across North America. This was likely aided by an expansion of human agriculture, forest fragmentation, and hybridization with other species. Eastern expansion in particular was aided by hybridization with wolves and dogs, resulting in size and color variation among eastern coyotes.

Before too long, coyotes may no longer be just a North American species. Kays notes that coyotes are continually expanding their range in Central America, crossing the Panama Canal in 2010. Active camera traps are now spotting coyotes approaching the Darien Gap, a heavily forested region separating North and South America, suggesting that they are at the doorstep of South America.

"The expansion of coyotes across the American continent offers an incredible experiment for assessing ecological questions about their roles as predators, and evolutionary questions related to their hybridization with dogs and wolves," adds Hody. "By collecting and mapping these museum data we were able to correct old misconceptions of their original range, and more precisely map and date their recent expansions.

"We hope these maps will provide useful context for future research into the ecology and evolution of this incredibly adaptive carnivore."

Source: North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences [May 22, 2018]

Eating to extinction: Urban appetite for bushmeat sparks wildlife crisis in Cambodia

From baby elephants to sun bears and pangolins, escalating demand for bushmeat in towns and cities is taking an increasingly heavy toll on some of Cambodia’s most endangered wildlife.

Cambodia’s remaining hog deer is population is under severe hunting pressure
[Credit: Jeremy Holden/FFI]

The extensive and growing use of snares to supply the burgeoning bushmeat market is resulting in the indiscriminate slaughter of wildlife, including Asian elephant calves and other species injured and killed accidentally in wire traps set for other animals.

Groundbreaking research commissioned by Fauna & Flora International (FFI), the first of its kind in Cambodia, has paved the way for a behaviour change campaign to reduce consumption of wild meat. The research has provided vital insights into the phenomenon of bushmeat consumption, shedding light on who eats what, and why.

Bushmeat consumption in Cambodia is not driven by the subsistence needs of impoverished rural communities, who typically rely on fish as their main source of protein. In fact, it is mainly a recreational activity associated with male-dominated gatherings of friends, work colleagues or family members. The practice is linked with peer pressure, social status and – among the elite – the perceived health benefits of eating wild rather than farmed meat.

Sunda pangolins are among the many species snared to supply the demand for bushmeat
[Credit: Tim Knight]

Almost half of the 24 different wild animals mentioned by the Phnom Penh citizens interviewed during the research stage of the project are threatened with extinction. Several, including the Sunda pangolin – the world’s most trafficked mammal – are officially categorised as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List.

Many of those interviewed were oblivious to the fact that some of these animals are on the brink and saw no reason why a previously plentiful resource shouldn’t continue to be readily available. Some of the more knowledgeable consumers are well aware of the increasing scarcity of certain species, but actually regard this as an essential part of their appeal; the prevailing attitude in this case appears to be ‘Buy now while stocks last’.

FFI and its local partners are among the many organisations working to protect Cambodia’s threatened species and habitats through a combination of community engagement, anti-poaching measures and support for improved law enforcement.

The bushmeat trade poses a threat to critically endangered Siamese crocodiles
[Credit: Jeremy Holden/FFI]

But there is increasing recognition that interventions such as snare removal and prosecution of individual poachers have limited impact in the face of demand-driven commercial hunting. The authorities’ capacity to tackle organised, large-scale wildlife crime is constrained by a shortage of resources and, in some instances, by corruption.

Until now, there has been no real attempt to tackle the problem from a consumer perspective in order to reduce demand for wildlife products in Cambodia. Having identified this gap in the market, FFI is formulating a consumer-focused strategy to complement other, more traditional, approaches to combating illegal wildlife trade. The main target for these activities will be regular consumers in Phnom Penh.

The research techniques employed in compiling the report have been widely utilised in the private sector but are relatively untried in a conservation context. FFI’s Flagship Species Manager, Jackson Frechette, has no doubt about the value of the research: “The findings will be crucial in enabling FFI and partners to decide how best to communicate with the different categories of consumer in order to bring about a change in attitude towards their country’s rich and valuable natural heritage.”

Download the published report here.

Author: Tim Knight | Source: Fauna & Flora International [May 22, 2018]

Conservationists fight to save animals as mass extinction looms

Animal and plant species are vanishing at an accelerating pace around the world - sometimes even before we know that they exist - but conservationists are pushing back against the juggernaut of mass extinction.

Madagascar's greater bamboo lemur was long thought to have been extinct until it was rediscovered in 1986
[Credit: Russell A. Mittermeier/AFP]

From captive breeding to satellite tracking; restoring habitats to removing predators; shaming multinationals to nursing baby pandas and orangutans -- in all these ways, scientists and others have given a second chance to creatures under threat.

Take the Mauritius kestrel, a svelte and dappled falcon reduced to a population of just four, including one breeding female, in 1974 by a perfect storm of human meddling.

The keen-eyed predator lost much of its natural habitat when settlers clear-cut the Indian Ocean island's forests in the 18th century.

What pushed the bird to the brink, however, was the widespread use of the pesticide DDT in the 1950s, as well as invasive species such as cats, mongooses and crab-eating macaques with a taste for the birds and their eggs.

But a combination of captive breeding, food supplements, nest improvements and predator control has increased the bird's numbers to about 400, making it one of the most successful bird restoration projects in history.

On nearby Madagascar, the greater bamboo lemur -- aka the broad-nosed gentle lemur -- has also made a fairy-tale comeback.

Long thought to be extinct, the dark-furred primate -- which has tufted, white-tinged ears -- was "rediscovered" in 1986 in the island nation's southeastern Ranomafana region.

True to its name, the lemur is a "bamboo specialist" that feasts almost exclusively on a single species of the fibrous, quick-growing plant. Scientists are still trying to figure out how the brown-eyed tree-dweller metabolises the quantities of cyanide -- enough to kill a human adult -- found in a day's diet of bamboo shoots.

The population of the Ethiopian wolf, Africa's most endangered carnivore, was wiped out by disease spread
 from domestic dogs  [Credit: Timothy J.Colston/AFP]

Unfortunately the lemur is still hanging by a "critically endangered" thread, isolated in four percent of its historic range. But the creation of a national park around the area where it was found has boosted its chances of survival.

Across the board, biodiversity is declining. To date, the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has evaluated nearly 80,000 animals and plants, cataloguing their conservation status on its famous Red List of endangered species.

Some 23,000 - nearly a third - are threatened with extinction, including 41 percent of amphibians, 34 percent of conifers, 33 percent of reef building corals, 25 percent of mammals, and 13 percent of birds.

"The sixth mass extinction is happening now," Craig Hilton-Taylor, head of the Red List, told AFP ahead of the International Day for Biological Diversity on May 22.

"But these conservation achievements highlight that there is still reason to be hopeful for the future of our planet, and that conservation does work."

It certainly helped keep the Ethiopian wolf from suffering the same fate, for example, as the Tasmanian tiger.

Canis simensis is Africa's most endangered carnivore, and probably the most endangered canid -- a family that includes dogs, wolves, jackals, foxes and coyotes -- in the world.

This elusive hunter lives only in the highlands of Ethiopia, notably in the Bale Mountains, where 200 individuals are monitored 24/7 by the Ethiopian Wolf Conservation Programme.

Disease that spread from domestic dogs has wiped out nearly a third of the wolf's population in recent years, but conservation efforts have secured its habitat and raised awareness among local peoples.

For now, the mountains still ring with its howl.

Author: Marlowe Hood | Source: AFP [May 22, 2018]

Critically endangered South American forests were man made

Critically endangered South American forests thought to be the result of climate change were actually spread by ancient communities, archaeologists have found.

Campos da Serra y Floresta de Araucari [Credit: Copyright Jose Iriarte]

Huge swathes of land in Chile, Brazil and Argentina are covered with millions of Araucaria, or monkey puzzle trees, thanks to people planting or cultivating them more than a thousand years ago, a new study shows. Recent logging means the landscape is now one of the world's most at-risk environments.

It had been thought the forests expanded due to wetter and warmer weather. But the research shows the rapidly expanding pre-Columbian population of South America, Southern Jê communities, were really responsible.

New excavations and soil analysis shows the forests, still hugely culturally and economically important to people living in South America, expanded between 1,410 and 900 years ago because of population growth and cultural changes.

Dr Mark Robinson, from the University of Exeter, who led the British Academy and AHRC-FAPESP-funded research, said: "Our research shows these landscapes were man-made. Communities settled on grassland, and then - perhaps because they modified the soil, protected seedlings or even planted trees - established these forests in places where geographically they shouldn't have flourished."

Monkey puzzle forests [Credit: Copyright Mark Robinson]

The forests date back to the period when dinosaurs roamed. The iconic monkey puzzle tree, or Parana pine, has grown in the region for thousands of years. Its nuts were one of the most important food sources for ancient communities, attracted game for hunting when nuts were ripe. They were also a valuable source of timber, fuel and resin, and became an integral part of southern Jê cosmology. Communities still call themselves "people of the Araucaria", and hold festivals to celebrate the forests.

Of the 19 species of Araucaria tree, five are classified as endangered and two, including the Brazilian Araucaria angustifolia, are critically endangered. Reports from the late 1800s describe trees with diameters of over 2 m, reaching 42 m in height. Modern trees are only around 17.7 m tall.

The archaeological analysis began because the experts, from the University of Exeter, University of Reading, University of São Paulo, University of New Mexico, Universidade Federal de Pelotas and Universidade do Sul de Santa Catarina, noticed that in areas of low human activity forests are limited to south-facing slopes, whereas in areas of extensive archaeology, forests cover the entire landscape. They were able to analyse soil isotopes reflecting vegetation and archaeological evidence from Campo Belo do Sul, Santa Catarina State, Brazil, to test whether this pattern was directly related to past human activity.

The study shows the forests first expanded around 4,480 to 3,200 years ago, most likely near streams, and this may have been caused by a wetter climate. But a more rapid and extensive expansion across the whole region later happened between 1,410 and 900 years ago, when forests expanded into highland areas. The weather during this time was dry and less humid. This expansion of the forests coincides with population growth and increasingly complex and hierarchical societies in South America.

Monkey puzzle forests [Credit: Copyright Mark Robinson]

The expansion in forests reached a peak around 800 years ago. The number of people in South America declined 400 years ago when European settlers arrived in the area. The population did not begin to recover until the 19 century, when loggers began exploiting the Araucaria forests for timber.

Professor José Iriarte, from the University of Exeter, another member of the research team, said: "This study shows the Araucaria forests were expanded beyond their natural boundaries, they were used sustainably for hundreds of years, and conservation strategies must reflect this so they balance protection, heritage and economic development."

The study is published in the journal Scientific Reports.

Source: University of Exter [May 17, 2018]

Study shows one third of world's protected areas degraded by human activities

A shocking study in the journal Science by the University of Queensland, Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), and University of Northern British Columbia confirms that one third of the world's protected areas - an astonishing 2.3 million square miles or twice the size of the state of Alaska - are now under intense human pressure including road building, grazing, and urbanization.

Some of these least impacted protected areas include Madidi National Park in Boliviawhere WCS has made
considerable conservation investments and therefore has successfully staved off degradation
[Credit: Rob Wallace/WCS]

The study is a reality check for nations striving to meet commitments under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) to halt biodiversity loss through protected area creation. Since 1992, the global extent of protected areas has roughly doubled in size; more than 202,000 cover more than 15 percent of the world's terrestrial area, with a goal of at least 17 percent coverage by 2020.

Though management objectives differ, ranging from strict biodiversity conservation areas to zones permitting certain human activities and sustainable resource extraction, the primary goal of all protected areas is to conserve nature.

The authors looked at global "Human Footprint" maps to make their assessment which shows that 32.8 percent of protected land is highly degraded. For protected areas created before the CBD was ratified 1992, 55 percent have since experienced human pressure increases. The authors warn that CBD goals will be severely undermined if widespread human pressure continues inside protected areas.

Said the paper's lead author, Kendall Jones of University of Queensland: "A well-run protected area network is essential in saving species. If we allow our protected area network to be degraded there is a no doubt biodiversity losses will be exacerbated."

The study shows that governments are overestimating the space available for nature inside protected areas. Governments are claiming these places are protected for the sake of nature when in reality they aren't. It is a major reason why biodiversity is still in catastrophic decline, despite more and more land being 'protected'.

However, the authors are not suggesting that high pressure protected areas be de-gazetted or defunded. To the contrary, it is crucial that nations recognize the profound conservation gains that can be realized by upgrading and restoring degraded protected areas while respecting the needs of local people.

The Good News

The most impacted protected areas were found in Asia, Europe, and Africa in places with massive human populations. But the study did find some good news: protected areas with strict biodiversity conservation objectives are subject to significantly lower levels of human pressure.

Some of these least impacted protected areas include Keo Seima Wildlife Sanctuary in Cambodia, Madidi National Park in Bolivia, and Yasuni Biosphere Reserve in Ecuador - places where WCS has made considerable conservation investments and therefore has successfully staved off degradation.

Said Professor James Watson of WCS and University of Queensland, and the study's senior author: "We know protected areas work - when well-funded, well-managed and well placed, they are extremely effective in halting the threats that cause biodiversity loss and ensure species return from the brink of extinction. There are also many protected areas that are still in good condition and protect the last strongholds of endangered species worldwide. The challenge is to improve the management of those protected areas that are most valuable for nature conservation to ensure they safeguard it."

Protected areas are at the core of WCS's conservation strategy, as these are areas that are most effective at protecting natural ecosystems and their complement of biodiversity and ecosystem services - over 80 percent of WCS's site-based field work takes place within or around protected areas. When well-managed (through sound enforcement, monitoring, clear boundaries) and funded appropriately, protected areas are effective in reducing the loss of natural habitat, and sustaining wildlife populations.

Said Watson: "Most importantly we've got to recognize that these jewels in the crown need support- there are some protected areas that are safeguarding nature and that still haven't got any evidence of human encroachment in them. We must ensure these values are maintained."

Source: Wildlife Conservation Society [May 17, 2018]